Craziest Real Estate Market Ever...
Q1 is throwing curveballs!
Ok, Just numbers on top, my deep thoughts down below! Ok, we are using Wake County, NC, for the report. It is the bell cow for one of the most dynamic markets in the county, the Triangle Region of NC. Later
All Wake County Sales.
March 2022 Sales of 1,712 at an average price of $526,664.00
March 2023 sales of 1,502 at an average price of $530,341.00
Sales are down; prices are up.
Wake County Existing Homes (not new construction)
March 2022 sales of 1,325 at an average price of $517,179.00
March 2023 sales of 1,046 at an average price of $487,705.00
Sales are down; prices are down.
Wake County New Construction
March 2022 sales 387 at an average price of $558,140.00
March 2023 sales of 456 at an average price of $628,140.00
Sales are UP; prices are UP.
Q1 2022 total sales units: 4,247 Total sales volume: $2,158,321,494.00
Q1 2023 total sales units: 3,561 total sales volume: $1,852,570,408.00
Sales are DOWN; volume is DOWN.
Ok, I have to get involved!
$18,000,000.00 in commissions evaporated in Wake County alone vs. this time last year, which is very painful to the real estate community.
First, the decrease in existing sales price. The average list price is up $10,000 from last year to $491,000.00; what we are missing is the exuberance from last year when the average home sold for $37,000 over the asking price. This will be a pain point for the next four or five months, and everyone will make a huge deal out of lower sales prices. Yes, they are lower than the craziest buyers' market of all time.
Over half of the existing homes sold in March sold for or over the list price. You read that correctly; over half sold at or over the list price. Many subdivisions are seeing records set every week.
My biggest surprise is the price gap between new and existing; genuinely shocked. Although I also expected that a large percentage of the latest builds would have been contracts written in 2022, they were not the majority were inventory homes sold in 2023.
The average price per square foot for a new build is $227 for the existing $222; the difference was the 600 square foot average difference between new and existing homes.
Over half of the existing homes sold in March sold for or over the list price. You read that correctly; over half sold at or over the list price. Many subdivisions are seeing records set every week.
This market reminds me of 2008 in one way and one way only, agent performance. If the MLS does not deliver a bundle of offers the first weekend, 92.67% of agents have no idea what to do; their answer is "reduce the price."
The delta between homes sold in the first weekend vs. the homes on the market over ten days is enormous, creating significant opportunities for buyers with skills or connections to skills.
So are we in a buyer's market or a seller's market? It depends on your home and your agent. We are seeing homes go unsold, new construction and existing, because they simply are not setting and exceeding expectations, they are boring, or the story told does not meet the reality of the home. Other homes are selling for prices that were unheard of in last spring's crazy market. There is a lot of money and a lot of life-changing going on in markets all over the country, creating a great environment for the right listings to do great.
Reading between the lines is crucial in today's market. A slight misstep in marketing can cost thousands of dollars; reducing the price by $50,000 versus correcting a $1,800 issue is normal again. There are great options available.
